Wayne County’s Transfer Dependency in 2022 vs 1970: Shocking analysis

In 2022, government transfers made up 26.4% of total income in Wayne County, Illinois—a 15.4% surge from 11% in 1970 and a 4% increase from 2012’s 22.4%. This marks the 31st largest increase among all Illinois counties over the past decade, according to information from the Economic Innovation Group.

On a per capita basis, this translates to $12,992 per resident in 2022, up from $10,099 in 2012 and $2,181 in 1970, ranking Wayne County as the 77th fastest-growing in per capita government transfers among Illinois counties over the past 10 years.

Meanwhile, Wayne County had the 27th largest share of income derived from government transfers, making it one of the largest dependent counties in the state.

Among Illinois’s counties, Alexander County saw the largest increase in transfer dependency over the past 10 years, surging 8.2% from 42.3% in 2012 to 50.5% in 2022, and up 26.3 percentage points from just 24.2% in 1970. In dollar terms, government transfers per capita in Alexander County jumped from $13,685 in 2012 to $24,592 in 2022, contrasting to the $3,814 recorded in 1970.

For comparison, the statewide average was 16.0% in 2022, showing a lower dependency than the national average of 17.6%. On a per capita level, this translates to $10,848 per resident, compared to $11,542 nationwide.

Government transfer payments are non-repayable funds provided by federal, state, or local governments to support individuals in need. These payments aim to stabilize economic conditions and provide financial support during hardships. Key programs include Social Security transfers (retirement benefits), Medicare transfers (healthcare for seniors), Medicaid transfers (healthcare for low-income individuals), and income maintenance transfers (financial assistance for basic needs).

In Wayne County, reliance on government transfers was just 11% (or $2,181 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970. This has since increased to a total of 15.4% since 1970. This shift is largely influenced by increased healthcare costs, and economic transformations that have reshaped income sources across the U.S.

In 2022, the primary government transfer programs in Wayne County included:

• Social Security: $4,312 per capita (33.2% of total transfers)
• Medicare: $3,219 per capita (24.8% of total transfers)
• Medicaid: $2,795 per capita (21.5% of total transfers)
• Income Maintenance Programs: $1,586 per capita (12.2% of total transfers)

With 22.3% of the population aged 65 and older, Wayne County has a significant demand for Social Security and Medicare. However, counties with higher poverty rates also show elevated Medicaid and income maintenance participation.

Government transfers have long been a modest financial safety net, historically comprising only a small fraction of Americans’ income. However, since the 1970s—sometimes dubbed the “Great Transfer-mation”—dependency has surged from 8.2% (or $2,022 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970 to 17.6% (or $11,542 per capita) in 2022 nationwide.

According to the Economic Innovation Group’s analysis, these trends are not merely short-term responses to economic pressures but rather reflect a profound, long-term transformation in how government support is integrated into American life. The study illustrates that structural shifts—from rising healthcare expenses and demographic changes to stagnant wages—have significantly increased dependency on government transfers.